OFFSHORE DRILLING IN CUBA
Deal needed to protect our seas
By JORGE R. PIÑON
jopino@fiu.edu
In 2008 the Brookings Institution carried out a series of simulation
exercises and discussions that served to enhance our understanding of
the complex political realities in Cuba and the United States. Oil and
the environment were among a proposed number of executive actions that
could facilitate a ``policy of critical and constructive engagement''
toward Cuba.
By testing the responses of several strategic actors and stakeholders to
a variety of scenarios, the Brookings study identified potential
catalysts and constraints to political change on the island. One of
these was the impact and influences that Venezuela and its current
leadership could have on the government of Cuba.
Two thirds of Cuba's petroleum demand currently relies on imports, and
Venezuela is the single source of these imports under heavily subsidized
payment terms. This petroleum dependency, valued at over $2 billion in
2009, could be used by Venezuela as a tool to influence a Cuban
government in maintaining a politically antagonistic and belligerent
position toward the United States.
Cuba has learned from past experiences and is very much aware of the
political and economic risks and consequences of depending on a single
source for imported oil. The collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 and
the 2003 Venezuelan oil strike taught Cuba very expensive lessons.
Only when Cuba diversifies suppliers and develops its offshore
hydrocarbon resources, estimated by the U.S. Geological Survey to be at
5.5 billion barrels of oil and 9.8 trillion cubic feet of natural gas
undiscovered reserves, will it have the economic independence needed in
order to consider a political and economic evolution.
If Cuba's undiscovered reserves are proven it would take between three
to five years for their development, and production volumes would have
to reach a level of over 200,000 barrels per day to have the same
economic benefit as that derived today from Venezuela's oil subsidies.
A Cuban government influenced by its energy benefactors would most
likely result in a continuation of the current political and economic
model. If Cuba's future leaders are unable to fill the power vacuum left
by the departure of the old cadre, they could become pawns of illicit
business activities, drug cartels, and the United States could face a
mass illegal immigration by hundreds of thousands of Cubans.
The United States should adopt a policy that supports the emergence of a
Cuban state where the Cuban people determine the political and economic
future of their country through democratic means, but to achieve this
goal Cuba must achieve energy independence, as it would reduce the
influence of autocratic and corrupt foreign governments on the island's
road toward self determination.
Another recommendation of the Brookings report was to ``develop
agreements and assistance with the Cuban government for disaster relief
and environmental stewardship".
In a recent meeting with the Miami Herald's editorial board Rear Admiral
William D. Baumgartner, the head of United States Coast Guard Seventh
District, recognized the fact that Cuba and the United States do not
have an emergency response agreement for oil spills.
The catastrophic Deepwater Horizon incident has demonstrated the
challenge of managing oil spills along with their complexity and
magnitude. An oil spill in Cuba's waters could threaten hundreds of
miles of coastline and marine habitats in Florida and the Bahamas.
The urgency for an agreement on protocols of cooperation between the
U.S. and Cuba to respond quickly and effectively to any incident that
threatens either country's marine and coastal habitats becomes evident
as Spanish oil company Repsol moves closer in drilling the Jagüey
prospect in Cuba's Strait of Florida waters.
The 1983 Convention for the Protection and Development of the Marine
Environment in the Wider Caribbean Region (Cartagena Convention) and the
1990 International Convention on Oil Pollution Preparedness, Response
and Cooperation, of which both Cuba and the United States are
signatories, provides an umbrella under which both countries could
develop such a bilateral agreement.
Closer relations with Cuba in the environmental arena would help to
emphasize the need for contingency planning and cooperation in an effort
to minimize the damage from potential oil spills which respect no
boundaries, making joint cross-border programs critical.
Jorge R. Piñon is the former president of Amoco Oil Latin America and a
member of the Brookings Cuba Task Force.
http://www.miamiherald.com/2010/10/05/1857743/deal-needed-to-protect-our-seas.html
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